Up to 70 Ships Wait on the Danube as Ukraine’s Grain Exports Face New Delays

• Up to 70 vessels are reportedly waiting near Romania’s Sulina Canal for access to Ukrainian Danube ports.
• More than 50 vessels were already waiting on August 25, while only five to seven ships a day were reaching Ukrainian ports.
• The delays are linked to limited canal capacity, a shortage of pilots, priority given to other cargoes and frequent air-raid alerts.
• Each additional day of waiting can add as much as $8,000 to a vessel’s transportation costs.
• The Danube has become increasingly important after Russian attacks effectively disrupted Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export route.
• Ukraine’s grain exports are already running well below normal levels, raising concerns about storage capacity and international food supplies.

Up to 70 vessels are waiting near the Sulina Canal for access to Ukrainian Danube ports, creating another major bottleneck for Ukraine’s grain exports. The Danube route became critical after Russian attacks disrupted Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, but its limited capacity cannot fully replace the country’s traditional maritime export corridor.

Up to 70 Ships Are Waiting Near the Danube

A large queue of commercial vessels has formed near the Sulina Canal, which connects the Danube with the Black Sea.

Traders and analysts cited by Reuters estimate that up to 70 vessels are currently waiting for access to Ukrainian Danube ports, where they are expected to load grain for international export.

The congestion has emerged at a particularly important moment for Ukraine, as farmers are bringing a new harvest to market.

The Queue Has Grown Rapidly

The situation was already serious on August 25.

According to agricultural consultancy ASAP Agri, more than 50 vessels were waiting to pass through the Sulina Canal, while only five to seven ships per day were moving toward Ukrainian Danube ports.

Avalon Shipping estimated the overall queue at around 70 vessels and said the effective capacity available to ships heading toward Ukrainian ports was only two or three vessels per day.

Why Are the Ships Stuck?

Several problems are contributing to the delays.

One is a shortage of pilots needed to guide vessels through the canal. Another is the limited capacity of the waterway itself.

Grain shipments are also competing with other types of cargo, including fuel, which can receive higher priority.

Frequent air-raid alerts create another interruption because Ukrainian port operations must temporarily stop when there is a threat of Russian attack.

Bad Weather Could Make the Situation Worse

The congestion could increase further because of weather conditions.

ASAP Agri warned that the Sulina Canal could be closed for approximately two days because of bad weather.

Any temporary closure would add to an already significant backlog of vessels.

Waiting Is Becoming Expensive

The delays are not simply a logistical inconvenience.

According to ASAP Agri, every additional day of waiting can increase freight costs by as much as $8,000 per vessel.

Those costs eventually affect the economics of Ukrainian agricultural exports.

For traders, exporters and ship operators, longer waiting times can make shipments significantly more expensive.

Russia’s Attacks Have Changed Ukraine’s Export Routes

The current congestion is directly connected to the deterioration of Ukraine’s Black Sea shipping route.

Russian attacks have effectively disrupted the ports that previously handled the overwhelming majority of Ukraine’s grain exports.

Around 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports previously moved through its Black Sea ports, according to Reuters.

The Danube has therefore become a crucial alternative.

The Danube Cannot Replace the Black Sea

The problem is that river ports have considerably lower capacity than Ukraine’s major Black Sea terminals.

This means that even when exporters redirect cargo to the Danube, the alternative route cannot easily absorb the same volume.

The current queue of vessels demonstrates the consequences of that capacity gap.

Ukraine Relied on the Danube Before

The Danube became particularly important during the first years of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

When Russia blocked Ukraine’s major Black Sea ports in 2022, exporters redirected large volumes of agricultural products through Danube ports.

The route’s grain-export capacity eventually reached approximately 2.5 million tonnes per month in 2022–2023.

That was a major logistical achievement, but current conditions are once again putting pressure on the system.

Ukrainian Railways Are Trying to Help

Ukraine is also attempting to increase the amount of grain transported to the Danube by rail.

According to Ukrainian Railways data cited by UNIAN, grain transportation toward Danube ports in August was 11 times higher than in July.

This shows how quickly exporters are attempting to adapt.

However, increasing rail deliveries does not solve the limited capacity of the maritime route itself.

The Export Shortfall Is Already Significant

Ukraine’s agricultural exports have fallen sharply since the disruption of the maritime corridor.

Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi previously said that grain exports during August 1–12 amounted to only about 30% of the level considered necessary.

Without a substantial recovery in Black Sea shipping, the minister said exports could reach only around half of the required level even with improvements to alternative routes.

Ukraine Faces a Storage Problem

Lower exports create another problem inside Ukraine: where to put the harvest.

Ukraine expects to harvest more than 80 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds this year, broadly comparable with last year’s production.

But if exports remain constrained, storage facilities could begin running short of space as early as November.

That would create additional pressure on farmers and agricultural companies.

Temporary Storage Is Being Prepared

Ukraine is seeking additional temporary grain-storage capacity to deal with the export bottleneck.

International partners, including the World Food Programme, the European Union and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, have already committed funds for temporary storage solutions.

The government is also discussing additional financing with international institutions.

Romania Is Becoming More Important

Romania has become an increasingly important part of Ukraine’s alternative export network.

The Danube route connects Ukrainian river ports with the wider European logistics system, while the Romanian port of Constanța provides access to global maritime shipping.

Ukraine is also increasing the use of rail connections through its western borders.

The Problem Is Bigger Than One Canal

The Sulina Canal is only one part of the wider logistics chain.

Even if the queue were reduced, Ukraine would still need sufficient capacity at river terminals, rail connections, storage facilities and Romanian maritime ports.

A bottleneck at any point can slow the entire export process.

Russian Attacks Have Also Targeted Civilian Shipping

The current disruption follows a series of Russian attacks affecting commercial vessels and port infrastructure.

In July, several civilian vessels were reportedly hit in and around Ukrainian waters, including ships carrying commercial cargo.

These incidents increased the risks for international shipping companies operating along Ukraine’s maritime corridor.

The Risk Is Also Economic

The consequences extend beyond Ukrainian exporters.

Ukraine is one of the world’s major agricultural suppliers, meaning prolonged disruptions can affect international grain markets.

Reuters reported last week that global wheat buyers were already preparing for possible supply shortages amid escalating attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure.

Global Wheat Prices Are Already Reacting

The disruption is occurring during a period when international wheat markets are particularly sensitive to Black Sea supply.

Reuters reported that Chicago wheat futures had risen by more than 17% since early July as buyers became increasingly concerned about Black Sea shipments.

A prolonged reduction in Ukrainian exports could put additional pressure on prices.

Other Suppliers Can Help — But Not Instantly

Importers can seek wheat and other agricultural products from alternative suppliers.

Countries in North and South America, Australia and other regions can increase exports.

However, replacing large volumes of Black Sea grain can be expensive and takes time, particularly when shipping routes and contracts have already been established.

The Impact Could Reach Food Prices

Higher transportation costs and reduced supply can eventually feed into international food prices.

The effect will depend on how long the disruption lasts, how quickly alternative suppliers respond and whether Ukrainian maritime exports can recover.

For now, the biggest concern is the possibility that a temporary logistics disruption becomes a prolonged reduction in Ukrainian agricultural exports.

The Timing Is Particularly Important

Ukraine is currently in the middle of its harvest season.

This creates a difficult combination: large quantities of new grain are entering the market at the same time that export routes are becoming increasingly constrained.

If farmers cannot move the harvest abroad quickly enough, storage pressure will increase.

The Danube Is Operating Below Its Potential

The current situation also demonstrates that the Danube cannot simply be treated as a direct substitute for the Black Sea.

Ukraine’s agriculture minister previously said the Danube route could eventually reach around 1.5 million tonnes per month, but drought and other restrictions have prevented it from operating at full capacity.

The current queue suggests that demand for the route is considerably greater than the available capacity.

Every Bottleneck Has a Wider Effect

A vessel waiting at the Sulina Canal is not only delaying one shipment.

The delay affects the ship’s next voyage, the availability of loading capacity, the exporter’s schedule and potentially the buyer’s delivery timetable.

When dozens of ships are delayed simultaneously, these individual problems can accumulate into a much larger logistics disruption.

Exporters Are Being Forced to Adapt

Ukrainian traders are responding by using combinations of river transport, rail, road and Romanian ports.

But each alternative route involves additional costs and capacity limitations.

The objective is not simply to find another route, but to create enough total capacity to move millions of tonnes of agricultural products.

The Situation Could Deteriorate Further

The immediate queue could become even longer if bad weather closes the Sulina Canal or if Russian attacks cause additional interruptions at Ukrainian ports.

That would increase waiting times and transportation costs.

The longer the bottleneck lasts, the greater the pressure on Ukraine’s agricultural sector.

The Black Sea Route Remains Critical

Despite efforts to develop alternatives, Ukraine’s traditional Black Sea ports remain essential to the country’s export economy.

Their much greater capacity allows large volumes of agricultural products to reach international markets efficiently.

Without them, Ukraine has to rely on a patchwork of smaller and more expensive routes.

A Threat to Ukraine’s Agricultural Economy

Agriculture is one of Ukraine’s most important export sectors.

Disruptions to exports reduce foreign-currency earnings, create storage problems and can put pressure on farmers’ incomes.

If the situation continues, the effects could extend beyond the current harvest.

A Problem for International Buyers Too

International buyers also have an interest in restoring stable Ukrainian exports.

Ukraine supplies grain and other agricultural products to markets across Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

A prolonged reduction in exports forces buyers to compete for supplies from other producing countries.

What Happens Next

The immediate priority is to clear the vessel backlog and increase the number of ships able to reach Ukrainian Danube ports.

Ukraine will also continue expanding rail and other alternative export routes.

But the long-term solution depends heavily on whether maritime shipping through the Black Sea can be restored to a significantly higher level of activity.

The Bigger Issue Is Capacity

The queue near the Sulina Canal is a visible sign of a much larger problem.

Ukraine still has agricultural products to export, international buyers who need them and ships ready to transport them.

What is missing is sufficient safe and reliable capacity to connect all three.

If the Black Sea route remains severely disrupted, the pressure will increasingly fall on the Danube and other alternative corridors.

Why the Next Few Weeks Matter

The coming weeks will be crucial for Ukraine’s agricultural sector.

The country needs to move the current harvest while simultaneously preparing storage capacity for the next stage of the season.

At the same time, international markets will be watching whether Ukrainian grain can continue reaching global buyers.

The growing queue of vessels near the Sulina Canal shows that the alternative export system is already under considerable strain.

Up to 70 vessels are now reportedly waiting near the Danube’s Sulina Canal for access to Ukrainian ports, while the waterway can currently move only a fraction of the traffic required. The bottleneck illustrates the limits of Ukraine’s alternative export routes after Russian attacks severely disrupted Black Sea shipping. With the harvest continuing and storage capacity coming under pressure, prolonged disruption could have consequences for both Ukraine’s agricultural economy and global grain markets.